A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
